China has stockpiled 343 ASML chipmaking machines, and a new report wants exports cut off

CTS estimates that Chinese-owned fabs imported 343 immersion DUV scanners from ASML between 2012 and early 2026, as Tom's Hardware reports. That count excludes machines at multinational fabs operating in China.

Most are one model: about 270 are ASML's NXT:1980i scanners, according to CTS. Tom's Hardware says these offer 38nm resolution and the precise overlay needed for the repeated patterning steps used to make 7nm-class chips.

A few more advanced machines: CTS also says Chinese fabs own 22 NXT:2050i and six NXT:2000i systems. It's unclear how many of the 296 advanced scanners shipped to China are still running, Tom's Hardware notes.

Recent buying: CTS estimates Chinese fabs bought about 90 NXT:1980i machines in 2024 and 89 in 2025, spending more than $13 billion over the two years.

The report was written by Nicholas Brown, a former US export control official, and Saif Khan, a former White House and Commerce Department technology policy adviser, according to the South China Morning Post. CTS was set up in August.

Lithography is the step in chipmaking where ultraviolet light prints circuit patterns onto a silicon wafer. CTS calls lithography systems the most important type of chipmaking equipment for advanced AI chips.

There are three modern generations, according to the report:

• Dry DUV: uses 193nm light to print features down to about 57nm. It's fine for older "legacy" chips.
• Immersion DUV (DUVi): projects the same light through a thin layer of purified water, printing features down to about 38nm. It was introduced in 2006.
• EUV: uses 13.5nm light and entered volume production in 2019. It's needed for today's most advanced chips.

ASML, a Dutch company, is the only supplier of EUV systems and holds about 99% of the immersion DUV market, CTS says. Japan's Nikon has the rest.

The key point: the Netherlands blocked EUV shipments to China in 2019. But immersion DUV machines can still produce 7nm logic and the high-bandwidth memory used in Huawei's AI chips, according to CTS. It takes more steps and costs more, but it works.

The answer is gaps in export rules, according to the report.

Dutch authorities began requiring licenses for ASML's NXT:2000i and more capable scanners in September 2023, effectively stopping those shipments to China, Tom's Hardware reports. So Chinese chipmakers switched to the slightly older NXT:1980i.

The Netherlands extended licensing to the NXT:1980i in September 2024, but individual exports can still be approved, Tom's Hardware says. CTS argues that public data shows "a large number of shipments are allowed."

Three openings remain, in CTS's view:

• Licensed NXT:1980i shipments still reach China, despite their ability to support Huawei's AI chips.
• Older machines such as the NXT:1965i are effectively uncontrolled and can support 16/14nm chips and older HBM2 memory.
• Servicing: Dutch rules let ASML keep China's installed machines running, including at fabs that make AI chips.

CTS points to two pathways for AI chip production.

Direct use: available evidence suggests that CXMT, China's leading maker of high-bandwidth memory, has kept buying substantial numbers of these systems, CTS says. It adds that Hua Hong Semiconductor may have stockpiled them for years while preparing a 7nm production line.

Diversion: machines first shipped to fabs making older chips could later be repurposed. CTS describes moving whole systems or subsystems to advanced fabs, upgrading a fab in place, or shuttling part-finished wafers between fabs.

ASML's results reflect unusually high demand from China, Tom's Hardware reports.

• 2024: China made up 41% of ASML's net system sales by shipment destination.
• 2025: 33%.
• Q1 2026: 19%.
• Q2 2026: 14%, a decline ASML had warned about.

Not entirely. Tom's Hardware says the overall count of immersion tools in China seems plausible, but some estimates look questionable.

The yearly purchase figures can't be independently reconstructed from ASML's published financial data, according to Tom's Hardware. ASML sold 129 immersion systems worldwide in 2024 and 131 in 2025. If CTS is right, Chinese chipmakers bought about 70% and 68% of that output, despite export controls introduced in 2024.

Tom's Hardware also notes that ASML has never sold a scanner called "NXT:1980i." The name likely covers the original NXT:1980Di and the newer NXT:1980Fi, and NXT:1980Di machines are readily available on the secondhand market.

CTS argues the fix is simple: replace today's partial controls with a China-wide ban on all immersion DUV exports. Its specific proposals:

• Ban all DUVi exports to China, including ASML and Nikon machines made outside the US. If the Netherlands or Japan won't act, CTS says the US could act alone using its foreign direct product rule.
• Ban servicing of these machines at advanced Chinese fabs by foreign workers.
• Prevent diversion of China's existing stockpile to AI chips. CTS says ASML may have the technical ability to do this.
• Restrict key parts, including Zeiss optics, high-power laser light sources and precision wafer stages.

Tom's Hardware says the proposal is consistent with the bipartisan MATCH Act introduced in April.

CTS estimates the US currently has about a 50x advantage in producing AI computing power. China's existing machines couldn't match US output even if every one were switched to AI chips, according to the report.

But if China keeps importing NXT:1980i machines at its 2024 to 2025 pace for the next five to 10 years, CTS says it could produce hundreds of millions of H100-equivalent chips a year. That could approach or surpass US and allied output in some scenarios.

China is unlikely to build its own competitive immersion DUV tools before the early-to-mid 2030s, and EUV before the second half of the 2030s, the report estimates. A ban, CTS argues, would lock in the US lead until then.

CTS argues the hit would be modest. It estimates ASML's main near-term loss at about $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year in Chinese servicing revenue, or 3% to 4% of its 2025 sales.

The report cites former ASML CEO Peter Wennink, who said in 2022 that even if China were "excluded from any growth," new fabs would be built elsewhere. CTS also says China could keep importing dry DUV machines, which cover all of its older chipmaking.

• AI chip supply: how many advanced chips China can make affects global competition, including Huawei's AI accelerators.
• Watch Washington and The Hague: any ban would need US action or cooperation from the Netherlands and Japan.
• Treat the numbers with care: the overall stockpile looks plausible, but key purchase estimates can't be independently verified.